Not this year but possibly the next. None believes the official GDP growth numbers from the Chinese government. Throw in a power struggle and that electricity consumption had a startling drop in April and many are on edge about their investments in this country.
Count Jim Jubak and I among those bearish. He's got a good article up today about why China could be headed for more than just a hiccup in it's economy. I think the real estate bubble in Shanghai and the smaller cities could tip the scale.
In a market that is hard to get reliable stats for, I would try to focus on power consumption and non-performing loans numbers to try to predict where this market is headed.
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Friday, May 18, 2012
Troubling signs of slow growth in India and a weak rule of law in Russia contribute to the fact that the BRICs still might not be low enough for the cautious investor. The BRIC Bear Market still has a ways to go. Throw in the uncertainty with the ruling Communist Party in China surrounding Bo Xilai and the subsequent power struggle, and we may have a ways to go before things stabilize. Plummeting housing prices are sparking fears of the housing bubble bursting in cities all across the Middle Kingdom as well.
Sunday, April 22, 2012
The power struggle ensuing behind closed doors is becoming more and more public knowledge as information about Bo Xilai trickles out. There is a good editorial at the Post about how it might effect our future, and why we must tread lightly when investing in China for the future. Rampant corruption in China threatens the entire fabric of their government -led economy.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
The bizarre events surrounding Bo Xilai just got stranger. His wife is being investigated for murder of a British national. I would exercise caution when investing in China. The government is shrouded in mystery, and we must rely mainly on foreign news media to try to get a glimpse of what goes on behind the red curtains. The Times article hints that the Party could be involved in his death, but now they need to frame the wife. Bo Xilai has already fallen, so his spouse would make an easy target.
Monday, April 9, 2012
Where is Bo Xilai? The former mayor of Dalian is still missing, and the Chinese government is shutting down websites in hopes of quelling internet unrest about it. These kind of reports make me wonder how long a society like what China has set up can last. Too many people eventually will start asking too many questions, so many that it will go beyond what the communist government can contain.