Tuesday, May 22, 2012

China on the verge of recession?

Not this year but possibly the next. None believes the official GDP growth numbers from the Chinese government. Throw in a power struggle and that electricity consumption had a startling drop in April and many are on edge about their investments in this country.

Count Jim Jubak and I among those bearish. He's got a good article up today about why China could be headed for more than just a hiccup in it's economy. I think the real estate bubble in Shanghai and the smaller cities could tip the scale.

In a market that is hard to get reliable stats for, I would try to focus on power consumption and non-performing loans numbers to try to predict where this market is headed.

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